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The Race to Election Day
Posted
8-24-2000
The conventions are over, and now it becomes a race to Election Day on
November 7. Rather than it being a sprint, it is more like a mile run. Each
candidate, Bush and Gore will have bursts of momentum, as witnessed by their
respective post-convention polling "bounces". Bush went up by 15% after the
Republican convention, only to see Al Gore negate that advantage and gain a
slight lead among likely voters after the Democrat convention.
I believe that we will see an
extremely close race the entire time, and it will come down to who wins key
states to pile up the electoral advantage needed to win. Bush's people seem
to believe that they are already very close to locking up enough states to
secure the 270 votes needed to win, while Gore seems to have only about 100
electoral votes clearly in his corner. But a lot can happen between now and
November, and until the votes are counted, nothing is for certain.
Bush is counting on a strong
showing in the south and from western states and hopes to win a few
mid-western states that have gone the Democrat's way in the last few
elections. Gore knows that he must clean up in the northeast, win
California, Oregon, and Washington, and hopes to hold onto Illinois,
Michigan, and Wisconsin. Some absolutely critical states are Pennsylvania,
Ohio, and Florida. Many pundits think Florida is a lock for George W., but
it went Democratic in 1996 and even with Jeb Bush as Governor, don't count
Gore out yet.
One interesting polling
number that has changed since the Democratic convention is that people now
favor maintaining the course that we've been on rather than changing (47% to
45%). Since January, that number had been about 50% to 41% in favor of
changing. Really, that is what this election comes down to. Do we believe
that things have been good and we need a similar strategy of deficit
reduction, strengthening education, and Social Security, or do we want a
change predicated on reducing the surplus built via the strong economy
through large tax cuts? If we had a stagnant economy, stimulating it through
a tax cut may make sense. But with inflation and unemployment low and the
economy strong, infusing more cash into it doesn't necessarily make sense.
It conflicts with Alan Greenspan's strategy of tightening the money supply.
It will be interesting to see
how accountable George W. is held by the media and the electorate with
regard to a detailed grasp of the issues. His campaign is already trying to
minimize the number of debates, while the Vice-President is willing to
debate as many times as possible. If a candidate is confident of his
understanding of issues and the correctness of his positions, why not get in
front of the American people and let them see your understanding? In George
W.'s case, he simply doesn't have a deep enough grasp of the issues, is not
quick enough on his feet, and knows beneath the "we'll let you keep more of
your money message"; there is little substance to his positions.
The national media put
pressure on Al Gore to introduce himself to the people through his
convention speech, show that he is his own man, and lay out his plans for
the future. With many of them, no matter what he did, he couldn't have been
a success. Was George W. held to the same standard? I don't think so. First
of all, he doesn't want to open up too much of his past, or he'll make
Clinton look like a square. Secondly, short of trying to say all the right
buzzwords to sound inclusive, just what did George W. say that was of
substance? Yet, most of the national media gushed that he seem so
"Presidential".
If there was any fairness in
the coverage of the two major party candidates for President, Bush's speech
would be dissected the same as Al Gore's. But Gore will have to overcome the
national media's higher expectation level and probably realizes after eight
years in the Clinton Administration, there is little margin for error.
Fortunately for Al Gore, the public seems to be connecting again with the
Democrat's message of helping working families on the issues that effect
their lives. We'll see how each candidate handles the debates and other
emerging issues in the next seventy or so days until the election. Will the
public appreciate the unprecedented positives of the last eight years or
will they take it for granted and buy the message of the Bush crew? |
