|
Campaign for Presidency Shapes Up
Posted
2-18-2000
Election year 2000 is underway and there are some interesting and important
races taking place across our country. At the "top of the ticket" is the
Presidency, featuring now what appears to be Vice-President Al Gore against
either Texas Governor George Bush or Arizona Senator John McCain. It seems
the Vice-President is gaining enough momentum to distance himself from Bill
Bradley. Mr. Gore has been able to win some early primaries and if he wins
California, it will be very tough for Bradley to turn things around. Even if
Bradley wins New York and New Jersey, there will not be enough places that
he can gain delegates to stop Al Gore's momentum.
On the Republican side, it is
another story. What seemed to a predetermined coronation for George W. Bush
has now turned into a dogfight between "W" and Senator McCain. Since all the
fringe candidates except Alan Keyes have dropped out the race is essentially
a two-person fight. The Senator scored a big victory in New Hampshire and if
he wins South Carolina, watch out W. McCain has much more crossover appeal
and most certainly a better grasp of the issues facing our nation. His
straightforward style seems much more appealing than W's frat boy, fun
loving, and "I deserve it" image. The Bush people are playing an extremely
dangerous game trying to downplay McCain military service and time as a POW
in Vietnam. There is a general feeling that serving as a POW is an extreme
sacrifice and to try to minimize that sacrifice, will backfire on Bush.
As a Democrat, I love the
battle on the other side. Our party is usually the one that tortures itself
each election with divisive primary battles. Actually, I should be cheering
for Bush because I think he's more vulnerable in November. But there is
something about McCain that is fascinating. Perhaps it is because he's
unsettled the good old boys in the Senate by pushing for campaign finance
reform. The fact that only four Republican Senators are for McCain shows
he's not the establishment's candidate. Also, McCain seems to have a style
that is disarming and, with a feeling that so many politicians don't give
straight answers, John McCain is being perceived as a breath of fresh air.
The battle on the Republican
side also brings to light the real internal battle among the social
conservatives of the Far Right and the majority of Republicans that may be
fiscally conservative but socially moderate. Bush seems to be courting the
Far Right because he views their support as a key to winning the nomination.
Unfortunately for him, shifting back to the middle may be hard for Mr. Bush
in November. McCain seems to have more middle-of-the-road appeal and if he
make it through the primaries, he may be better positioned for November.
For Al Gore, I think a
campaign against W will be more winnable than McCain. Assuming Gore can win
a few more primaries and distance himself from Bill Bradley, he can begin to
focus on whoever appears to be winning the Republican nomination. It will be
tough for Gore because of the subjective feeling many voters have for
change, I think he stacks up well against W who in many ways represents
insiders more than the Vice-President.
This year's Presidential race
is quite interesting, particularly with no incumbent. Bill Clinton has
presided over eight years of unprecedented economic progress, yet his
personal challenges have made the election of Al Gore more difficult. It's
not impossible, just more difficult. The question is, will the Republicans
field a candidate with a style that seems the opposite of the President's,
like McCain, or one who though he comes from a very different background,
appears to have some of the "character" question marks the Republicans have
hung on Bill Clinton. |
