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Mascara's District
Posted 02-13-2002
The day is getting near for candidates to begin circulating petitions
for the many legislative offices that are on the ballot this year. While it
doesn't appear that there will be too many surprises in the races for the
Pennsylvania Legislature and the Pennsylvania State Senate, there is a lot
of tension in the air for Democrats over just which district Congressman
Frank Mascara will run in. Through reapportionment, Congressman Mascara has
been placed in the new 18th District, and it is very different from his old
20th District.
The word is, Congressman
Mascara feels uneasy about his chances in the 18th District and will run
instead against fellow Democrat Jack Murtha in the 12th District. The 12th
District has more of Congressman Mascara's old 20th District in it, but it
would pit two incumbent Democrats against each other, ensuring that only one
would be available in the general election. That is not good for Democrats!
Since the Republicans
controlled everything about the reapportionment process, we knew nothing
that about the new districts would be favorable for Democrats. The initial
drawing of districts had Murtha and Mascara together in the 12th District.
When Jack Murtha balked at having Mascara in his district, the Republicans
redrew the districts barely moving Mascara into the 18th District. They are
creating the new 18th District as a big favor to State Senator Tim Murphy
from Allegheny County who is the Republicans' anointed new golden boy and
the next Santorum/Hart clone.
The 18th District has 355,000
people from Allegheny County, 190,000 from Westmoreland County, and 100,000
from Washington County. So, it is drawn for someone from Allegheny County.
That doesn't mean it has to be a Republican District or for that matter Tim
Murphy's district. The district is 57% Democrat, although it doesn't perform
that way. The Westmoreland County portion certainly is a "swing" area,
meaning it can go either way. Certainly the presidential, senatorial, and
congressional elections in 2000 must give Republicans a lot of confidence
that these areas that have Democrat registration advantages may vote
Republican.
I still believe Frank
Mascara's best chances are in the 18th District. Beating Jack Murtha would
take millions and millions of dollars, and Frank Mascara doesn't have that
kind of money. But, he does have enough and can raise enough to beat Tim
Murphy. Mascara wouldn't have to spend much in the Primary Election and
could get DCCC help for a General Election battle. Tim Murphy will be a
tough opponent, but he isn't a household name like Jack Murtha. He certainly
isn't very well known outside of Allegheny County. Frank Mascara would have
to dramatically increase his own visibility in the 18th District. But doing
that is more feasible than battling Murtha.
We should know very soon what
will happen. The day to begin circulating petitions is coming soon. I hope
Frank Mascara looks at thing pragmatically and doesn't let emotion cloud his
decision. Our party has a history of in- fighting that only serves to
benefit the Republican Party. Let's see if one time we can direct our energy
and resources against them and not against each other. |
