| |
Results of the Primary
Posted 05-29-2002
The dust is settling from last week's primary election, and, in all
reality, there weren't that many surprises. Polling had shown, in recent
weeks, Ed Rendell with a growing lead over Bob Casey. So, his 12% victory
was not a stunning upset. The race for Lieutenant Governor ended with a
Catherine Baker Knoll win, just as the polls predicted. The results were a
little closer than polling had shown, but there were simply too many men in
the race against one woman. The other big race around here, featuring two
incumbent congressmen, Jack Murtha and Frank Mascara, was not surprising,
except that Murtha's margin of victory was so large.
What do all the results mean?
First and foremost, Ed Rendell has a real battle on his hands in November.
Mike Fisher is drab and colorless, and his only executive experience is as
the chief prosecutor of Pennsylvania. But, he will be made out to be the
greatest thing since sliced bread. All the things Bob Casey attacked Rendell
on will be used and much, much more. If you think the Casey campaign was
negative wait until Fisher's gets started. Republicans are the masters of
negative campaigning. They will stoop to any level to win, and then act
virtuous after it is all done. Remember Willy Horton? Not Billy Horton,
Frank Mascara's Texas mudslinger. Remember Mike Turzai flying helicopters
over Ron Klink's house? The list could go on and on, but you get the
picture. It will be nasty again. What else is Fisher going to do? He managed
nothing, so he can't say he's a better executive than Rendell who ran one of
the biggest cities in the USA.
Rendell's problems start with
the fact that he only won ten of sixty-seven counties. Granted his margin of
victory was large enough to give him a 12% victory. But, he won by about
150,000 votes and that was his margin in Philadelphia County. The suburban
counties in the Southeast are for the most part Republican, so Rendell must
not only turn out large numbers of Democrats in those counties, he must get
Republican votes too. His pro-business, pro-choice, and moderate stance on
guns may play well even with Republicans in those counties. But, he will
need to keep the margin of his losses everywhere else small.
He will struggle in the T and
in our region. The NRA will spread their propaganda that Ed Rendell wants to
take people's guns away. Even though that is not true. The wild card will be
the unions. Will they take a walk on Rendell because they opposed him in the
primary election, or will they recognize that he's a much better alternative
for them than Fisher?
I'm not sure how much the two
Lieutenant Governor candidates will factor in the race. The Republicans will
certainly try to make Mrs. Knoll an issue, but, historically, people vote
for the Governor, not the number two person. Let's hope that is the case
again. The Republican candidate, Senator Jane Earll is not a household name
in Pennsylvania, but she will be portrayed as a vibrant alternative to
Catherine Baker Knoll.
As for the congressional
races, Murtha whipped Frank Mascara as expected in Cambria, Indiana,
Somerset, and Armstrong counties. He won big here, about two to one. Fayette
County was a battleground and Murtha won there too. Mascara won Washington
and Greene counties as expected, but his margins there (about 70-30) were
not big enough. It is a shame that Frank Mascara chose to end his career in
this manner. Rather than run against a State Senator who isn't that well
known outside of Allegheny County, Frank chose to take on one of the
institutions in Congress. Not only was it a race that didn't need to be run,
but also Frank leaves us in a tough position in the 18th District.
Jack Machek won the
Democratic Primary in the 18th, but he will have a steep uphill battle
against Tim Murphy. It isn't simply a matter of keeping Democrats voting
Democratic in a district with a 70,000-vote registration advantage.
Republicans studied performance, and the newly configured 18th performs
Republican. They didn't gerrymander the 18th the way they did for nothing.
You may say; that is why Frank Mascara didn't run in the 18th. But, he still
would have had more money, more name recognition, and would have had a free
ride in the primary.
Frank Mascara's action and
Catherine Baker Knoll's candidacy point to one recurring problem in the
Democratic Party across Pennsylvania. We have NO leadership and NO party
discipline. Give the Republicans their due respect; they avoid bloody,
expensive primaries, and, short of Bob Dole, they don't put up candidates
that are past their prime. Look how they got Barbara Hafer not to challenge
Mike Fisher. Then, Fisher picked Jane Earll, and no one else ran for
Lieutenant Governor on their side. We had no one that could convince Frank
Mascara not to run against Murtha but to fight for us to hold on to the seat
in the 18th. Also, we had no one that could convince Mrs. Knoll that it
wasn't in the best interest of the party for her to run.
This gubernatorial election
is our final battle. If Rendell doesn't win, we might as well wave the white
flag. We already don't control much in Harrisburg. Our legislative leaders
seem more interested in self-preservation rather than gaining control. We
don't control the courts, so if political battles like reapportionment end
up in court, we'll likely lose. If Rendell can win, we can start changing
the leadership of the State Democratic Party, raise money, and recruit
candidates to start taking back the State House. Perhaps Rendell's campaign
will even help with some contested State House seats out east. So stay
tuned, the next five months will tell a lot about the future of the
Democratic Party in Pennsylvania. |
